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PPI: Quarterly growth data must be treated with 'caution'

Data for economic growth covering individual quarters must be treated with caution, according to an economic forecasting group.

Earlier this week, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) released their latest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates.

The report stated that output is expected to grow by 0.6 per cent in the three months to November, after GDP growth hit 0.5 per cent in the three months ending in October. 

Andrew Goodwin, senior economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, advised against placing too much emphasis on estimated data given to future quarters over the next six months, and recommended "looking at wider trends".

He said: "The quarterly profile of GDP growth is likely to be particularly bumpy around the turn of the year, with January's VAT increase leading consumers to bring forward spending from the beginning of next year to the final months of this year."

Posted by John Fieldman

Having worked in the city for 19 years, John's main focus is interest rates and corporate finance ADNFCR-2776-ID-800285788-ADNFCR



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